Weekend Forecast: Strong to Severe Storms

By: Kevin Stewart

It is the Spring Storm Season meaning it gets a bit roudy and stormy in the Plains.

It is typical weather but this week has already been active with strong winds, hail, and tornadoes across the Plains states and Midwest.

Record Heat occured reccently in the Northeast States while here on 4/17/2026 the NWS SPC (Storm Prediction Center) in Norman, OK is tracking a Cold Front that could cause some severe weather and possibly a tornado outbreak this afternoon and evening into tonight across the Plains. This threat will then extend into the Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Tonight and to start the weekend.

The SPC has a Level 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk In Place for today (Friday 4/17) their offical wording reads,

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
possible today into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest
southward across the lower Missouri Valley into central Great
Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large hail
and a few strong tornadoes, before damaging wind gusts become the
most prominent hazard by this evening.

This cold front will bring below normal temperatures to these same regions over the weekend into early next week. It has already been a record warm spring across not just the United States but the Globe. April has started off very warm to even hot across the Lower 48 and this Cold Front will bring brief relief.

The Offical Statement for Saturday is as follows,

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.

On the Flip Side of the Severe Weather Threat there is a major Fire Weather Threat on the back of this system due to strong wind gusts, and very dry conditions.

1. Friday: Critical
2. Saturday: Elevated
3. Sunday: Critical

Friday's Offical SPC Statement

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. During the afternoon, surface pressure gradients will
tighten across much of the High Plains with a cold front progressing
southwestward into southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This
will promote Critical fire weather conditions throughout eastern New
Mexico, Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. A second shortwave impulse
will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and
some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic.

Saturday's Offical SPC Statement

Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.
Enhanced southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front
will pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the wake of the aforementioned upper
trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and northerly flow will promote
Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central
Plains.

Sunday's Official SPC Statement

..Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday...
...Southern Plains...
Lee surface troughing across the central/northern High Plains as
high pressure settles into eastern TX will support a broad southerly
return flow across portions of the southern High Plains Sunday. The
enhanced south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph, low RH amid a
well-mixed boundary layer and continued receptive fuelscape supports
a higher likelihood of critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest KS. 70% critical
probabilities were introduced within the broader 40% area
encompassing much of the southern High Plains.

This is the typical Spring Storm Season and we should all remain weather aware.

Stay Safe! For more on your local weather you can visit our Star Elements page at myshine.xyz/weather